Assignment: Hazards of Greatest Concern

Assignment: Hazards of Greatest Concern

Assignment: Hazards of Greatest Concern

Access this Plan online at: www.CityofBerkeley.info/Mitigation

Executive Summary

Berkeley is a vibrant and unique community. But every aspect of the city – its economic prosperity, social and cultural diversity, and historical character – could be dramatically altered by a serious earthquake or fire. While we cannot predict or protect ourselves against every possible hazard that may strike the community, we can anticipate many impacts and take steps to reduce the harm they will cause. We can make sure that tomorrow’s Berkeley continues to reflect our current values.

The City and community members have been working together for years to address certain aspects of the risk – such as strengthening structures, distributing disaster supply caches, and enforcing vegetation management measures to reduce fire risk. The 2004 Disaster Mitigation Plan formalized this process, ensuring that these activities continued to be explored and improved over time. Over many years, this constant focus on disasters has made Berkeley, its residents and businesses, much safer.

This 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan continues this ongoing process to evaluate the risks that different hazards pose to Berkeley, and to engage the community in dialogue to identify the most important steps that the City and its partners should pursue to reduce these risks.

The federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 called for all communities to prepare mitigation plans. The City adopted a plan that met the requirements of DMA 2000 on June 22, 2004. This is the 2014 update to that plan, which ensures that Berkeley will remain eligible to apply for mitigation grants before disasters, and to receive federal mitigation funding and additional State recovery funding after disasters.

Risks in Berkeley

A sound disaster resilience program must be founded on reliable information about the types and scale of damage that different hazards could cause. To develop the 2004 Disaster Mitigation plan, the City conducted detailed research on four major natural and two major “manmade” hazards present in Berkeley. These hazards were earthquake, wildland-urban interface fire, landslide, flood, hazardous materials release, and terrorism. Since that time, new maps and data depicting the extent and possible impacts from tsunami and climate change have become available. In 2011, the City added these hazards to the list.

As in 2004, earthquake and wildland-urban interface fire are the two hazards of greatest concern. These hazards have the potential for catastrophic impacts to Berkeley.

Assignment: Hazards of Greatest Concern

Earthquake We do not know when the next major earthquake will strike Berkeley, the United States Geological Survey calculated that there is a 63 percent chance that a 6.7 magnitude earthquake will strike the Bay Area by 2038, and a 31 percent chance that that earthquake will occur on the Hayward/Rogers Creek Fault system, which runs directly through Berkeley.i The 1994 Northridge earthquake was also magnitude 6.7, and caused $28 billion in losses.

A catastrophic earthquake on the Hayward Fault would cause very violent shaking and three types of ground failure in Berkeley. Liquefaction is likely in the westernmost parts of the city.

Liquefaction can destroy pavements and dislodge foundations. Surface fault rupture could occur along the Fault, causing displacements of up to several feet. Landslides are expected in the Berkeley hills during the next earthquake, particularly if the earthquake occurs during the rainy winter months. Landslide movement could range from a few inches to tens of feet; ground surface displacements as small as a few inches are enough to break typical foundations.

In a 6.9 magnitude earthquake on the Hayward Fault, the City estimates that over 600 housing units in Berkeley will be completely destroyed and 20,000 more will be damaged. One thousand to 4,000 families may need temporary shelter. Depending on the disaster scenario, one hundred people could be killed in Berkeley alone, and many more would be injured. Commercial buildings, utilities, and public roads will be disabled or destroyed.

The earthquake could also spark numerous fires at a time when water systems may not be functioning. This plan estimates that building damage in Berkeley alone could exceed $1.8 billion, out of a multi-billion dollar regional loss, with losses to business activities and infrastructure adding to this figure. Low- income housing units are expected to be damaged at a higher rate than other residences. Other types of housing, such as condominiums, may replace them when land owners rebuild. This could lead to profound demographic shifts in Berkeley.

Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Berkeley is vulnerable to a wind-driven fire starting along the city’s eastern border. The fire risk facing the people and properties in the eastern hills is compounded by the area’s mountainous topography, limited water supply, minimal access and egress routes, and location, overlaid upon the Hayward Fault. Berkeley’s flatlands are also exposed to a fire that spreads west from the hills. The flatlands are densely-covered with old wooden buildings housing low-income and vulnerable populations, including isolated seniors, persons with disabilities and students.

The high risk of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire in Berkeley was clearly demonstrated in the 1991 Tunnel Fire, which destroyed 62 homes in Berkeley and more than 3,000 in Oakland. In 1923, an even more devastating fire burned through Berkeley. It began in the open lands of Wildcat Canyon to the northeast and, swept by a hot September wind, penetrated residential north Berkeley and destroyed nearly 600 structures, including homes, apartments, fraternities and sororities, a church, a fire station and a library. The fire burned downhill all the way to Shattuck Avenue in central Berkeleyii.

If a fire today burned that same area, 3,000 structures would be destroyed, with losses for buildings alone exceeding $3 billion. Destruction of contents in all of the homes and businesses burned could increase the losses by another $600 million. Depending on the speed of the fire spread, lives of Berkeley residents could also be lost. Many established small businesses, homes, and multi-family apartment buildings, particularly student housing, would be completely destroyed, changing the character of Berkeley forever.

Assignment: Hazards of Greatest Concern

This plan identified three additional natural hazards of concern: rainfall-induced landslide, flood, and tsunami. These hazards could cause significant damage and losses in Berkeley. However, unlike earthquake and WUI fire, their impacts are likely to be smaller, and confined to specific areas.

Berkeley has a number of deep-seated landslides that continuously move, with the rate of movement affected by rainfall and groundwater conditions. Significant localized areas of the Berkeley hills face risk from landslide, and a major slide could endanger lives and impact scores of properties, utilities and infrastructure.

Floods also could damage property and cause significant losses in Berkeley. Flooding can occur when stormwater exceeds the capacity of a creek channel, or the capacity of the storm drain system. Creek flooding in Berkeley has the potential to affect about 675 structures, mainly in the western, industrial area of the city. It is unlikely that floodwaters will reach higher than three feet, but damages to homes, businesses, and their contents could total almost $150 million. With few properties covered by flood insurance, these costs would be borne primarily by Berkeley residents and businesses.

Tsunamis, though rare inside the San Francisco Bay, can occur from large offshore Subduction style earthquakes around the Pacific Rim. Small, local tsunamis can also result from offshore strike-slip Faults such as parts of the San Andreas Fault of the Peninsula and the Hayward Fault through San Pablo Bay. The March 2011 Japan earthquake generated a devastating tsunami, which reached the Bay Area and caused minor damage to docks and floats in the Berkeley Marina.

A larger tsunami could impact much more of Berkeley’s western shores. Buildings, infrastructure, and roadways could be damaged, and debris and hazardous materials could cause post-tsunami fires. Deaths are possible if individuals choose not to evacuate hazardous areas, do not understand tsunami warnings, or are unable to evacuate.

Manmade Hazards of Concern

This plan addresses climate change, hazardous materials release, and terrorism as Berkeley’s three manmade hazards of concern.

Like regions across the globe, the San Francisco Bay Area is experiencing and will continue to increasingly experience the impacts of the changing climate. By 2100, average temperatures in the San Francisco Bay Area will increase up to 11° F. In 2100, Berkeley will have 6-10 additional heat waves each year, which will disproportionately impact the elderly, children under five, and the low-income community members.

Climate change will also cause additional extreme rainfall events, which will lead to more flooding. San Francisco Bay sea-levels will rise up to 55” by 2100, impacting infrastructure and community members in west Berkeley. Climate change impacts will also exacerbate the natural hazards of concern outlined in this plan. Rising sea levels will increase Berkeley’s exposure to earthquake liquefaction, tsunami inundation, and flooding. Increases in precipitation and severe storms will make flooding more frequent, and will increase the landslide risk in the hills. California’s water security will be reduced, and drought will become a more persistent issue.

Over the last twenty years, Berkeley has seen a more than 90 percent reduction in the number of facilities with extremely hazardous materials. The City carefully tracks hazardous materials within its borders, and works closely with companies using large amounts of potentially dangerous materials. The City has identified fifteen facilities in Berkeley with sufficiently large quantities of toxic chemicals to pose a high risk to the community. Hazardous materials also travel through Berkeley by truck and rail. Natural hazards identified in the plan could trigger the release of hazardous materials.

It is not possible to estimate the probability of a terrorist attack. Experts prioritize terrorism readiness efforts by identifying critical sites and assessing these sites’ vulnerability to terrorist

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Disaster Resilience Managing risk requires government and its partners to identify and evaluate risks, and implement and maintain policies, practices and projects to reduce those risks. Many innovative Berkeley initiatives are increasing our community’s disaster resilience:

• The City has strengthened its ability to serve the community during and after disasters by seismically upgrading or replacing buildings that house critical City functions. Since 2004, Berkeley has strengthened or replaced its City Hall, all seven fire stations, all five libraries, its public works maintenance building, and its animal shelter.

• The Berkeley Unified School District, supported by voter-approved bonds, has strengthened all public schools.

• Over 90% of Berkeley’s 700 unreinforced masonry buildings have been retrofitted or demolished since a City mandate began in 1991.

• Berkeley was the first city in the nation to inventory the community’s soft-story buildings. In December 2013, City Council adopted an ordinance requiring soft-story buildings with five or more units to be retrofitted within five years. .

• Berkeley has also developed innovative programs to encourage building owners to strengthen their own structures. The City has distributed over $9 million through the Transfer Tax Rebate Program, which reduces the real estate transfer tax to building owners who perform seismic safety work.

• Four different programs contribute to vegetation management citywide, removing thousands of tons of potential fire fuels each year.

• The City enforces several programs to reduce Berkeley’s fire hazard in the hills. These include strict building and fire code provisions, as well as more restrictive local amendments for new and renovated construction, along with vegetation control inspections in high-risk properties.

• The Disaster Cache Program incentivizes community-building for disaster readiness. To date, the City has awarded 87 caches of disaster response equipment to neighborhoods, congregations, and UC Berkeley Panhellenic groups that have undertaken disaster readiness activities.

• The City recently hired two positions tasked specifically with increasing disaster readiness in Berkeley’s vulnerable and underserved populations.

• Berkeley’s 2009 Climate Action Plan has served as a model for jurisdictions across the nation. The Climate Action Plan also guides the City’s new climate adaptation strategy.

These programs, and many others, place Berkeley as a leader in disaster management. Long-term maintenance and improvements to these programs will help to protect the Berkeley community in our next disaster.